The long slow march toward artificial consciousness will proceed as fast as memory and chip speed will allow it. What the final result of this research will be is impossible to guess at this stage, but even if scientists are unable to create a machine that is aware, they will likely be able to create one that can imitate intelligence well enough to do many human tasks. This will inevitably change the structure of many societies, and we will necessarily need to prepare for it. Today a world of thinking machines seems like a far flung possibility, but with the rate at which computer sophistication increases many of us will see a computer capable of imitating, and thus replacing, simple human actions within our lifetimes. What would be useful is if the computer and robotics organizations in existence today could create an international panel working with major governments to examine and address these issues. Primary among them should be the examination of how robotics, even before advanced computer intelligence, will change the distribution of labor around the world. If we do not prepare ourselves for this shift, it will cause even more upheaval than the shift from manual to machine labor did during the Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century. This can be managed and assuaged by planning in advance how to shift from human to machine labor on a worldwide scale. We should establish educational programs for retraining as well as social security nets to ensure social and cultural stability in the nations most heavily affected. This planning should begin now to avoid the suffering that will inevitably come from being taken off guard and unprepared by the sudden changes we are bound to experience.
From Reuters, two days ago:
Contract manufacturers such as Foxconn, which also counts Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Nokia among its clients, are moving parts of their manufacturing to inland Chinese cities or other emerging markets.
They are also boosting research and development investments to lift their thin margins.
"Workers' wages are increasing so quickly that some companies can't take it longer," said Dan Bin, a fund manager at Shenzhen-based Eastern Bay Investment Management, which invests in technology and consumer-related shares in China and Hong Kong.
"Automation is a general trend in many sectors in China, such as electronics. Of course some companies will consider moving their manufacturing overseas, but it's easier said than done when the supply chain is here."
The China Business News on Monday quoted Foxconn Chairman Terry Gou as saying the company planned to use 1 million robots within three years, up from about 10,000 robots in use now and an expected 300,000 next year.
0 comments:
Post a Comment